Following the basic laws of economics, product price fluctuations must be caused by the imbalance between supply and demand, which can be divided into several aspects:
The demand for capacitors and resistors is greatly driven by the demand for applications, such as the upgrade of smart phones, the development of new energy vehicles, and the emergence of bitcoin mining machine "black horse"
The imbalance caused by industrial structure adjustment, such as the increase in MLCC prices in 2017-2018, is mainly caused by Japanese enterprises shifting their production capacity to high-end application market and abandoning the large size market of 0603, 0804 and 1206
Imbalances caused by external circumstances, such as the "retaliatory" growth in demand for applications after the dotcom bubble of 2003 and the end of the financial crisis of 2009
Other such as raw materials, packaging materials and other national environmental control led to price rises
After sorting out the causes of product price rise, let's look at the price rise of capacitor resistance at the beginning of 2020. On the surface, the reason can be linked to "3" and affected by external factors.In the original factory's own words, affected by the Chinese lunar New Year holiday and the sudden outbreak of the new crownvirus epidemic, the enterprise in January and February struggling rate is low, the February production capacity of only 30% to 50%.The delay in resuming work after the holiday, the aggravation of labor shortage, and the expenditure of labor wages and social security, plant rent, equipment depreciation and other costs, so that enterprises have to increase prices to balance
In addition, Q4 capacitive resistance market has completed the "destocking" last year, the inventory level dropped to about 30 days, has reached the price rebound "critical point
Small price rises were the main story in 2020, but a sudden outbreak has been the catalyst for rapid price rises.In addition, huaqiangbei market has not been fully opened, which further emphasizes the shortage of supply chain in terms of channel
It is understood that resistance is in short supply at present is 0402, 0603 and other small package models, which are mostly used in consumption, communication, security and other fields, while MLCC models in short supply are 0603, 0805, 1210 and other medium and large size
"At present, we have no stock of several models, the ordering cycle of the original factory has been extended by at least half, some urgent orders are also purchased at a high price, to serve good quality customers.According to an agent, it will take at least four to six months for the supply and demand contradiction and price increase in the passive component market to ease the balance, depending on the end of the epidemic.
In fact, in addition to MLCC and resistors, such as memory, CIS, display panels, infrared sensors, and so on, are rising in price due to the epidemic.However, the price of tolerance as high as 50%-100%, the rationality of what?
In fact, it is difficult to calculate the proportion of cost increase brought by the new epidemic and help enterprises calculate a reasonable price increase.Just in the last week, the reporter felt more is the enterprise facing price rise helpless mood!In particular, some small and medium-sized enterprises, not easy to get the "pass" to resume work, were informed that all kinds of components needed to increase prices, even if it is a small capacitor resistance also want to "take advantage of the fire", the mood can be imagined!
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